Q4 2025 Year-End Report: St. Johns County Real Estate Sets Stage for 2026
By Inna Moskalyk
Jan 7, 2026
Tags:Market Reports
As 2025 drew to a close, the St. Johns County and Jacksonville real estate markets had completed a remarkable three-year transformation. From the frenzied seller's market of 2023 through 2024's transition to the established buyer's market of 2025, the market had finally found equilibrium. Here's your Q4 2025 year-end analysis.
Q4 2025 Year-End Statistics
The year's final quarter confirmed the market's return to health:
- Price Growth – Approximately 3% annual appreciation-sustainable and healthy
- 2026 Outlook – 4% price growth anticipated as balance returns
- Rate Trend – 30-year rates at approximately 6.3% by year-end
- Investor Interest – Activity beginning to return as market conditions normalized
- Refinancing Wave – Anticipated as 2026 projections show rates dropping to 6.1-6.2%
Holiday Season Celebrates Community
The 32nd Annual Nights of Lights (November-January) once again transformed St. Augustine into a magical destination:
- Record Attendance – Building on 2024's surge as the event continued growing
- Economic Impact – Hotels, restaurants, and local businesses benefiting from extended tourism season
- Community Pride – Event showcasing why St. Johns County remains a desirable place to live
Coverage from Visit St. Augustine highlighted the region's continued appeal to visitors considering relocation.
Stadium of the Future: Progress Continues
Ten months into construction, Jacksonville's EverBank Stadium transformation progressed toward its 2027 completion target. The project represented the city's largest infrastructure investment and signaled long-term confidence in the region's growth.
- Construction Employment – Thousands of jobs supporting local economy
- Future Events – Enhanced venue expected to attract major events and concerts
- Community Development – Nocatee and Silverleaf approaching new phases of expansion
2023-2025: A Market Transformed
Looking back at the three-year cycle revealed the market's full journey:
- 2023 – Peak seller's market with rates hitting 8%, beginning of transition
- 2024 – Price peak in April at $584,900, followed by clear shift to buyer's market
- 2025 – Established buyer's market with stabilizing conditions
- 2026 Outlook – Market balance expected as rates stabilize and inventory normalizes
Jacksonville's Value Proposition
Compared to other major Florida metros, Jacksonville maintained significant advantages:
- Affordability – Lower cost of living than Miami, Tampa, and Orlando
- Population Growth – Continued influx of new residents from higher-cost markets
- Job Market – Diverse economy with healthcare, logistics, and financial services
The Florida Realtors statewide data showed how Northeast Florida compared favorably to other regions.
Year-End Insights
For Buyers:
The year ended with continued opportunity for those ready to act. High inventory, reasonable rates, and seller flexibility created favorable conditions. Strategic buyers who purchased in 2025 positioned themselves well for anticipated appreciation.
Understanding the full buying process: The Ultimate Home Buying Checklist.
For Sellers:
Those who adapted to market reality found success. Realistic pricing, professional presentation, and flexibility on terms remained essential. The market rewarded those who met buyers where they were.
2026: What to Expect
Market indicators pointed to a healthier 2026:
- Rate Relief – Projections showing rates in 6.1-6.2% range
- Price Appreciation – 4% growth anticipated-stronger than 2025 but sustainable
- Inventory Balance – Expected normalization as market reaches equilibrium
- Activity Increase – Both buyers and sellers likely to engage as conditions stabilize
Start 2026 with a Strategy
The lessons of 2023-2025 were clear: market conditions change, and preparation matters. Whether you're planning to buy, sell, or invest in 2026, starting with a solid strategy makes all the difference. Contact me today to discuss your real estate goals for the new year.