Q4 2025 St. Johns County Market Report

Q4 2025 confirmed that St. Johns County and Jacksonville had finished a full market cycle. From 2023's frenzied seller's market through 2024's transition and 2025's established buyer's conditions, year-end statistics showed roughly 3% annual appreciation, 30-year mortgage rates near 6.3%, and inventory that finally gave buyers room to negotiate without collapsing prices. Nocatee, SilverLeaf, and established Jacksonville neighborhoods all participated in that normalization. For 2026, local projections pointed to modest rate relief (6.1%–6.2%) and about 4% price growth—enough to reward well-prepared buyers and sellers, not enough to recreate 2021 bidding wars. If you are planning a 2026 move, start with a written strategy: buy-side representation for new construction and resale, or a seller valuation if you intend to list before the spring school-calendar wave.

As 2025 drew to a close, the St. Johns County and Jacksonville real estate markets had completed a remarkable three-year transformation. From the frenzied seller's market of 2023 through 2024's transition to the established buyer's market of 2025, the market had finally found equilibrium. Here's your Q4 2025 year-end analysis.

Q4 2025 Year-End Statistics

The year's final quarter confirmed the market's return to health:

• Price Growth – Approximately 3% annual appreciation-sustainable and healthy
• 2026 Outlook – 4% price growth anticipated as balance returns
• Rate Trend – 30-year rates at approximately 6.3% by year-end
• Investor Interest – Activity beginning to return as market conditions normalized
• Refinancing Wave – Anticipated as 2026 projections show rates dropping to 6.1-6.2%

Holiday Season Celebrates Community

The 32nd Annual Nights of Lights (November-January) once again transformed St. Augustine into a magical destination:

• Record Attendance – Building on 2024's surge as the event continued growing
• Economic Impact – Hotels, restaurants, and local businesses benefiting from extended tourism season
• Community Pride – Event showcasing why St. Johns County remains a desirable place to live

Coverage from Visit St. Augustine highlighted the region's continued appeal to visitors considering relocation.

Stadium of the Future: Progress Continues

Ten months into construction, Jacksonville's EverBank Stadium transformation progressed toward its 2027 completion target. The project represented the city's largest infrastructure investment and signaled long-term confidence in the region's growth.

• Construction Employment – Thousands of jobs supporting local economy
• Future Events – Enhanced venue expected to attract major events and concerts
• Community Development – Nocatee and Silverleaf approaching new phases of expansion

2023-2025: A Market Transformed

Looking back at the three-year cycle revealed the market's full journey:

• 2023 – Peak seller's market with rates hitting 8%, beginning of transition
• 2024 – Price peak in April at $584,900, followed by clear shift to buyer's market
• 2025 – Established buyer's market with stabilizing conditions
• 2026 Outlook – Market balance expected as rates stabilize and inventory normalizes

Jacksonville's Value Proposition

Compared to other major Florida metros, Jacksonville maintained significant advantages:

• Affordability – Lower cost of living than Miami, Tampa, and Orlando
• Population Growth – Continued influx of new residents from higher-cost markets
• Job Market – Diverse economy with healthcare, logistics, and financial services

The Florida Realtors statewide data showed how Northeast Florida compared favorably to other regions.

Year-End Insights

For Buyers:

The year ended with continued opportunity for those ready to act. High inventory, reasonable rates, and seller flexibility created favorable conditions. Strategic buyers who purchased in 2025 positioned themselves well for anticipated appreciation.

Understanding the full buying process: The Ultimate Home Buying Checklist.

For Sellers:

Those who adapted to market reality found success. Realistic pricing, professional presentation, and flexibility on terms remained essential. The market rewarded those who met buyers where they were.

2026: What to Expect

Market indicators pointed to a healthier 2026:

• Rate Relief – Projections showing rates in 6.1-6.2% range
• Price Appreciation – 4% growth anticipated-stronger than 2025 but sustainable
• Inventory Balance – Expected normalization as market reaches equilibrium
• Activity Increase – Both buyers and sellers likely to engage as conditions stabilize

Start 2026 with a Strategy

The lessons of 2023-2025 were clear: market conditions change, and preparation matters. Whether you're planning to buy, sell, or invest in 2026, starting with a solid strategy makes all the difference. Contact me today to discuss your real estate goals for the new year.